How much above or below the asking price do Australian properties actually sell? It's the question every buyer and seller asks first, and one most market commentary answers in vague generalities. We matched 19,764 sold properties to their original asking prices to put a number on it. The honest answer is that it depends heavily on which Australia you mean.
The headline national average is +0.57%, which sounds neutral. But Victoria is two-thirds of our sample, and Victoria is the softest market in the country. Strip VIC out and the rest of the country averages roughly +2.65% above asking. Western Australia, Tasmania, Queensland and South Australia all sit firmly above their listed prices.
So the right way to read this analysis is state by state, with two different stories running in parallel.
This isn't a perfectly state-balanced sample. VIC accounts for 65% of matched sales (12,926 of 19,764). The "national" average is therefore VIC-weighted. Treat the state-by-state breakdown as the more useful read, and treat the smaller-sample states (ACT, NT, and to a lesser extent WA, TAS, SA) as directional only. We've flagged the thin-sample states explicitly in the table below.
- National (sample-weighted) average: +0.57% above asking. VIC alone: -0.52%. Ex-VIC: roughly +2.65%.
- 43% of properties sold above asking; 16% sold more than 5% below.
- Auctions average +3.84% above guide; private sales average -0.70% below.
- WA, TAS, QLD and SA all run materially above asking. ACT and NT have too few matched sales (227 and 97 respectively) to draw firm conclusions.
- Asking prices predict sold prices better than any single AVM we tested (5.04% MAE vs 7.82%).
Want this for your shortlist?
See sold-vs-asking on any Australian suburb
Live data on every postcode - median sold prices, % above asking, days on market and yields. Free, no signup needed to browse.
Find your suburb in 2 minThe headline numbers
The mean is +0.57%, the median is -0.41%. The gap between mean and median is the story. A subset of strong-clearing sales (mostly auctions in tight WA, TAS and inner-Sydney suburbs) pulls the average above zero, while the typical Australian property lands fractionally below its listed price.
The downside matters too. 16.4% of properties (roughly one in six) sold more than 5% below asking. Those are sellers whose price expectations were materially off, or properties where something material changed during the campaign.
Auction vs private sale: the gap is large
Sale method is the single biggest factor in whether a property clears above or below its asking price.
| Sale Method | Properties | Avg vs Asking | Median vs Asking | % Sold Above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Auction | 3,636 | +3.84% | +3.06% | 65% |
| Private Sale | 12,508 | -0.70% | -1.41% | 36% |
| EOI | 70 | -1.94% | -1.57% | 36% |
| Unclassified | 3,550 | +1.75% | 0.00% | 48% |
Auctions clear above asking 65% of the time, averaging close to 4% over guide. Private sales run the opposite way. Most sell at or below asking, with a median outcome of -1.41%. The "Unclassified" row captures the 3,550 sales where the original listing didn't carry a parseable method tag (typical wording: "For Sale", "Contact Agent", "Tender", "Offers Over"). It's a real subset of the market, not a data error, but the listing copy didn't tell us how the property was actually sold. We've shown its results for completeness rather than featured them as a clean signal.
Two factors drive the gap. Auction guides are often set conservatively to generate interest, so a guide of "$900K to $990K" on a property the agent expects to fetch $1.05M is standard practice. Competitive bidding then creates real price discovery. Two motivated buyers at auction can push a result well past what either would have offered in a private negotiation.
If you're bidding at auction in a hot market (most WA, TAS, inner-Sydney postcodes), expect to need 5%+ above the guide. In cooler private-sale markets like Melbourne, the listed price is closer to a ceiling than a floor; opening 3-4% under asking is realistic on properties that have been listed more than two weeks (matching the VIC private-sale median of -2.7%). We've put more conditional guidance below the state breakdown.
State-by-state: the two-Australia split
We've separated the table into states with a robust matched sample (1,000+ sales, decent geographic spread) and states where the numbers are directional only (under 1,000 sales, often clustered in a few postcodes).
Robust sample
| State | Properties | Avg vs Asking | Median vs Asking | % Sold Above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VIC | 12,926 | -0.52% | -1.49% | 35% |
| NSW | 3,176 | +1.67% | 0.00% | 43% |
| QLD | 1,778 | +2.44% | +1.88% | 68% |
Directional only (smaller sample)
| State | Properties | Avg vs Asking | Median vs Asking | % Sold Above |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WA | 603 | +6.48% | +6.00% | 87% |
| SA | 492 | +3.59% | +2.35% | 67% |
| TAS | 465 | +4.89% | +4.03% | 82% |
| ACT | 227 | +1.60% | +1.25% | 59% |
| NT | 97 | +1.70% | +0.58% | 56% |
Three things to read from this:
Victoria is the soft state. The median Victorian matched sale lands -1.49% below asking, and only 35% of properties clear above. With nearly 13,000 matched sales, this is the segment of our data we have the most confidence in. The Victorian asking price tends to function as a ceiling for buyers rather than a floor for sellers.
NSW sits close to neutral. The median NSW matched sale closes exactly at asking, with 43% of properties clearing above. Sydney's auction-heavy mix produces above-guide clearances on individual properties, but the state-wide median is flat.
WA, TAS and SA run hot, but treat the exact percentages with caution. 603 WA sales is enough to be confident the pattern is real (87% above asking is a big effect), but small enough that the exact +6.5% premium could shift a percentage point or two with a different suburb mix. Same for TAS at 465 and SA at 492. The direction is solid; the precision isn't. ACT (227) and NT (97) are thinner still. I'd be uncomfortable quoting the NT number to anyone making a real decision.
What does the WA premium look like in dollars? On a typical Perth listing of $750K, the +6.5% average WA premium is around $49K of extra cost above the guide. In TAS at +4.8%, a $600K listing pushes around $29K above asking. These aren't pure overpayments. Much of it reflects guide-pricing being deliberately conservative. But the cash difference between "I'll offer the asking price" and "I'll offer what the data says I'll need to" is real.
Speed tells you everything
Properties that sell above asking move a full week faster than those that don't. Real demand compresses time on market and pushes the eventual price up. Once a property starts to sit, the seller's leverage erodes quickly.
If you're selling, the first three weeks are the window. Twenty-one days of showings without a serious offer is the data telling you the asking price was wrong. Cut early or cut deeper.
Property types: villas and duplexes outperform
| Property Type | Properties | Avg vs Asking | % Sold Above |
|---|---|---|---|
| Villa | 182 | +4.28% | 65% |
| Duplex / Semi | 88 | +3.94% | 63% |
| Townhouse | 1,991 | +0.87% | 46% |
| House | 10,920 | +0.75% | 45% |
| Unit | 2,041 | +0.73% | 46% |
| Apartment | 4,356 | -0.16% | 36% |
| Other (Studio, Terrace, Acreage, Land, Retirement etc.) | 186 | -2.71% | 38% |
Villas and duplexes sit consistently above asking. The reason is scarcity. New construction in those typologies has all but stopped over the past decade, so when one comes up in an established suburb the bidding gets fierce regardless of broader market conditions.
The "Other" row aggregates 18 small categories (Studio, Terrace, Acreage, Residential Land, Retirement Living, Lifestyle, Flat, Warehouse and similar). It's heavily skewed by Residential Land sales, which tend to clear well below asking when subdivision economics shift. Treat it as background, not a category you'd plan a buying strategy around.
Among the main residential categories, apartments are the only one with a negative average. Brisbane and Melbourne high-rise oversupply hasn't cleared yet, and buyers know it.
Apply this to live listings
See which active listings are priced below their comparable sold prices
Every active listing on PropRadar shows the asking price next to recent sold comparables in the same suburb, plus DOM, sale type, and the sold-vs-asking pattern for the property type. Free to browse.
Browse listings with sold comparablesThe asking price beats every algorithm we tested
This was the result that surprised us most. We compared two approaches to predicting sold prices: the asking price on its own, versus automated valuations from the leading sources.
| Predictor | Mean Absolute Error |
|---|---|
| Asking price | 5.04% |
| Best automated valuation | 7.82% |
Asking prices are set by a human agent with local knowledge and a commercial interest in pricing tight enough to attract offers but not so tight they leave money on the table. They beat algorithmic valuations by close to 3 percentage points.
That doesn't make asking prices accurate in any absolute sense. A 5.04% MAE on a $1M home is still around $50K either way. That's enough to lose you a property, or talk you into one you shouldn't have bought. But the cynical "asking prices are just marketing" line doesn't hold up against the data. Agents are getting it more right than the algorithms.
PropRadar's blended valuation (which weights several AVM sources by their backtested accuracy) sits between the two. Closer to the asking price than to any individual AVM, which is what you'd expect when you blend reasonable models that disagree at the margins.
The exact MAE figures here (5.04% asking, 7.82% best AVM) are calculated on this matched-sample of 19,764 sales with a >50% outlier filter. Our deeper valuation accuracy study uses a different test set (14,651 sales with full pre-sale valuation coverage from four providers) and reports 5.52% for asking and 6.82% for the best AVM. The headline finding is the same in both samples: asking prices outperform every individual algorithmic valuation we've tested. The exact gap between the two depends on which subset of the market you're measuring.
Conditional buyer/seller guidance
Most "rules" in property writing are absolute (always X, never Y). The data doesn't support that. Use these as starting points, not commitments.
If you're buying at auction:
- In WA, TAS or hot inner-Sydney/Melbourne postcodes: factor in 5%+ above guide as a likely landing zone. In a few suburbs (the leaderboard below) closer to 10%.
- In cooler Melbourne or regional NSW auctions: guide is usually closer to truth. Don't budget the same buffer.
If you're buying private sale:
- In VIC: private-sale median is around -2.7% below asking, and only 20% of VIC private sales clear above asking. An opening offer 3-4% under is realistic on properties listed 2+ weeks. (We have 6,954 VIC private-sale matches, which is enough to be confident in this number.)
- In WA, TAS, SA: lowball offers will mostly fail. Budget at or modestly above asking.
- In QLD or NSW: it's mixed. Look at suburb-level sold-vs-asking patterns rather than state-level averages.
If you're selling:
- Price tight, watch the first three weeks. If you don't have a serious offer by day 21, the data is telling you the price was wrong. Cut decisively. Drifting price reductions extend DOM without recovering ground.
- If you're in WA or TAS, your buyer pool is already factoring in a premium. Listing exactly at market is fine; listing 5% above market just trains buyers to walk past your campaign.
The suburbs where competition is fiercest
These suburbs had the highest rate of sales above asking (minimum 15 recent matched sales):
| Suburb | State | Total Sold | % Above Asking | Avg Premium |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claremont | TAS | 16 | 100% | +7.6% |
| West End | QLD | 17 | 94% | +7.6% |
| Rockingham | WA | 16 | 94% | +5.8% |
| Varsity Lakes | QLD | 16 | 94% | +4.1% |
| Rozelle | NSW | 15 | 93% | +10.9% |
| Narangba | QLD | 15 | 93% | +3.9% |
| Kingston | TAS | 25 | 92% | +3.9% |
| Perth (CBD) | WA | 23 | 91% | +6.1% |
| Glenorchy | TAS | 22 | 91% | +6.8% |
| Gladstone Park | VIC | 21 | 91% | +7.0% |
In Claremont (Hobart's southern fringe, not the Perth one), every matched sale closed above asking. The leaderboard skews Tasmania- and Queensland-heavy, with three Hobart suburbs particularly striking: Claremont, Kingston, Glenorchy. These are established, supply-constrained markets where listing prices function as an entry ticket. Going in at the asking price almost guarantees missing out.
What this actually means
The cleanest takeaway is that there is no single national answer. The gap between what's listed and what's paid depends on three things: how the property is being sold (auction vs private), where it is (VIC vs everywhere-else), and how fast it moves (under three weeks vs over).
Lead with the state, not the headline. The Victorian buyer is shopping a different market to the WA buyer, and a national average masks both.
Knowing which side of the split you're on matters more than knowing the headline figure.
FAQ
Do most Australian properties sell above or below asking?
Roughly an even split, with a slight tilt toward below. Across 19,764 matched sales, 43.3% sold above asking and 56.7% at or below. The median outcome is -0.41%. But the distribution is heavily influenced by sale method and state: auctions overwhelmingly clear above asking, private sales mostly at or below, Victoria mostly below, and WA/TAS mostly above.
How much above asking do properties usually sell for at auction?
Auction sales average +3.84% above asking, with 65% selling above. Auction guides are deliberately set low to generate interest, so some of that premium is marketing effect rather than genuine bidding uplift. After adjusting for underquoting, the real auction premium is closer to +2% to +3%.
Which Australian state has the biggest gap between asking and sold price?
Western Australia, on our matched sample. 87% of WA properties sold above asking, averaging +6.48% over. Tasmania is next at 82%. The caveat: our WA and TAS samples are smaller (603 and 465 respectively), so the exact percentages should be read as directional rather than precise.
Should I offer below asking in Australia?
In Victoria, yes. The median VIC private-sale outcome lands around -2.7% below asking (across 6,954 matched VIC private sales), and only 20% of VIC private sales clear above the listed price. Offers under asking are common, especially on properties listed more than 21 days. In WA, TAS or SA, lowball offers will mostly fail. At auction in any state, expect to bid 5-10% above the guide in hot markets.
Why do some properties sell 30% below the asking price?
Usually one of three reasons: (1) the original asking price was set unrealistically high, (2) the property has material defects that only become apparent after listing (flood history, structural issues, title problems), or (3) the market shifted materially during the campaign. About 16% of our sample (roughly one in six) sold more than 5% below asking.
Do asking prices predict final sold prices better than valuations?
Yes. In our data, asking prices have a 5.04% mean absolute error against eventual sold prices, compared with 7.82% for the best automated valuation. A human agent with local knowledge and a commercial interest in pricing correctly still beats algorithmic valuation in Australia in 2026.
Take this further
Track sold-vs-asking on any suburb you're watching
PropRadar pulls these numbers per suburb every day. Save the suburbs you're researching and we'll surface the live sold comparables, recent above-asking sales, and DOM trend each time you check back. No card.
Watch a suburbKeep reading: If asking prices beat valuations as a predictor, which suburbs have the strongest price momentum? See where prices are rising and falling in the March 2026 growth study. For the auction vs private sale breakdown in detail, see which sale method gets sellers a better price. For how we build the underlying numbers, see our methodology.
Analysis based on 19,764 matched sold properties from PropRadar's database where both a recorded sold price and the original asking price are available. Sale dates are the dates listings were marked sold publicly (typically when the contract goes unconditional, not the later settlement date), and fall between February and April 2026. PropRadar tracks 43,000+ sold properties in total, but the analysis here is restricted to the subset where we also captured the original asking price (about 46% of the sold pool); the remainder were captured by the sold scraper without ever being matched to a prior for-sale listing, or had unparseable asking-price text such as "Contact agent" or auction listings with no guide. Outliers more than 50% from asking are excluded. Those are almost always data anomalies (price-text mismatches, off-market transactions tagged with current dates), not genuine market outcomes. See methodology for details on the sold-data matching process.
This information is general advice only. It does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. Property purchase and sale decisions carry real financial risk. Before acting on this data, consider your personal circumstances and consult a licensed financial adviser or real-estate professional.
Not sure where to invest? Take the 2-min quiz and we'll rank your top 10 suburbs.
Take the 2-min quizTurn market context into a shortlist
Compare live listings, suburb fundamentals, yield, cashflow and valuation signals before you inspect.